Forschergruppe "Structural Change in Agriculture", TP 07: "Energy from Biomass: Linkages between the Agricultural & the Energy Sector in the EU"

Over the last three decades, real energy prices have increased relatively to real prices for agricultural products. Consequently, bioenergy as a share in total energy demand has increased world wide and is expected to increase further. The potential supply of biomass for energy production has an impact on the future energy balance, and demand for energy from biomass has an impact on agricultural markets. This interrelationship has often been analyzed either based on energy system models, assuming a given biomass supply, or based on agricultural sector models assuming a given biomass demand for energy. Alternatively, some studies address this market interdependencies based on general equilibrium models with a very stylized representation of the energy sector.

The objective of this subproject is to ex-ante analyze the interdependence between the energy and the agricultural sector in the EU under energy as well as agricultural policy scenarios based on the combined use of two well established partial models: the Integrated Markal Efom System (TIMES) PanEU Model, which is a bottom up dynamic energy system model and the European Simulation Model (ESIM), which is a partial equilibrium comparative static agricultural sector model.

The work programme includes the identification and creation of interfaces and exchange variables for both models, the conceptualization of the regional dimension of bioenergy markets, the further development of both models, as well as scenario development and analysis. Close interrelations exist with subproject 6: the interface with FARMIS allows addressing regional and farm specific effects of energy policy scenarios; and with subproject 7: the inclusion of agriculture in EU climate policy will have effects on the potential of the agricultural sector to supply biomass for energy, which will be taken into account.